Migration in an Age of Movement

Principles and Pathways Forward

Executive Summary

Migration is a structural feature of global society. More than 281 million people live outside their country of birth and over one billion move within national borders (IOM 2024; UN DESA 2023). These figures reflect durable mobility patterns shaped by economic, demographic, environmental, political, and technological forces that operate across countries and over time. Our world is deeply intertwined despite rising trends of isolationism. We are witnessing that conflicts, disasters, or lack of opportunities unfold that can lead to migration and we see how irregular migration is exploited by bad actors. There is an opportunity now to reshape migration strategies across governance levels and to create strategies that instead provide improved regular migration pathways and frame migration as an opportunity for host countries and communities alike.

The Aspen Institute International Partners identified migration as a critical challenge applying pressure to democratic systems around the globe. To build towards a more resilient, innovative, and human-centered future, the Institute convened a cohort of 18 young leaders from 14 countries across North America, South America, Oceania, Europe, and Asia for the 2025 Global Changemakers Workshop: The Price of Passage.

They were tasked with building a nonpartisan policy agenda for migration governance in the next decade. The recommendations emphasize anticipation and design over crisis management, aiming to maximize the mutual benefits of migration while safeguarding human rights and national interests.

The 6 Identified Policy Recommendations

Treat Migration as Structural, Not Episodic

Build Fast, Transparent Legal Pathways

Build Adaptive, Multi-Level Governance

Frame Integration as a Two-Way Process

Strengthen Social Inclusion and Change Narratives

Link Migration to Broader Resilience Strategies

The decade from 2025 to 2035 will be decisive because structural migration pressures will intensify at the same time that many countries face shrinking workforces, climate volatility, and rising public concern about social cohesion. The stakes are at an operational and strategic high. Governments that do not differentiate between structural drivers and local conditions will continue to rely on reactive measures that increase fiscal costs, strain services, and deepen political polarization. By contrast, policymakers who build governance systems that assign responsibilities clearly across levels of government, integrate migration into long-term labor and climate planning, and create predictable legal pathways will reduce irregular flows, stabilize labor markets, and strengthen public trust and confidence in migration management. The question is not whether human mobility will continue, but whether institutions will adapt quickly enough to manage it in a way that supports economic competitiveness, community resilience, and social stability.

Policy Recommendations

Migration Policy Brief

Why Migration Matters
in 2025–2035

Migration will remain one of the defining features of our global system over the next decade. At the start of the decade, more than 281 million people lived outside their country of birth, and over one billion moved within national borders. These numbers tell us about the unprecedented scale of human mobility, but they do not capture the full picture of how people actually move. Today's migration includes people circling back and forth between home and destination, workers on temporary or seasonal contracts, students pursuing education abroad, and individuals spending years in transit countries before reaching their final destination. These patterns don't fit neatly into the old categories of "origin," "transit," and "destination" countries, and they're challenging governance systems that were designed for one-way, permanent moves. In the next decade, effective governance means moving beyond simplistic assumptions toward a framework that distinguishes between patterns we can address through coordinated international approaches and conditions that require targeted local responses. Without this clarity, policies risk staying reactive and fragmented, unable to manage migration as the structural reality it has become.

Who the Global Changemakers Are

The Global Changemakers Workshop (GCW) is designed to foster reflective insights, critical analysis, and collective problem-solving. As such, the findings that follow distinguish this unique cohort’s contributions from more traditional analyses from migration-focused organizational peers. Launched in 2023, GCW is a flagship initiative of the Aspen Institute International Partners. It is designed to equip the next generation of leaders to build a better future by reflecting on their values, tackling global challenges, and safeguarding democracy. The Workshop annually gathers a cohort of approximately twenty, 25-35 year old professionals from a variety of sectors around the world. Each year it identifies a new challenge of critical importance and gathers diverse voices with relevance to that challenge. Through nonpartisan and intentionally crafted dialogue, the Workshop builds a globally-focused cohort dedicated to transformational change within their communities and encourages them to collaborate around a topic of critical importance challenging democratic values and systems.

In October of 2025, the Global Changemakers Workshop hosted The Price of Passage, in Bogota, Colombia. This year’s cohort brought together 18 Changemakers from 14 countries across North America, South America, Oceania, Europe, and Asia. Changemakers represented a broad spectrum of sectors, including government and foreign affairs bodies, security and law enforcement agencies, multilateral organizations, environmental and humanitarian groups, legal and policy practitioners, academic institutions, nonprofits, and business leaders and social entrepreneurs. Changemakers engaged in 4 intensive policy roundtables led by experts in the topic. This year, the roundtables were led by Maria Eugenia Brizuela de Avila (Mayu), Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of El Salvador and Executive Coach; and Faith Cooper, Regional Director for the US Southern Border at the International Rescue Committee and Chair of the United States Refugee Advisory Board.

Mapping the Journey

Each policy roundtable mapped the passage of a migrant through different stages in their journey as a grounding point to identify the drivers and implications of migration. Beyond the roundtable discussions, changemakers interacted with local experts to understand the local context and impact of migration on Colombia, looking closely at the Venezuelan refugee crisis and the response of the Colombian government. Changemakers also had the opportunity to learn from migrants directly through an exchange with Venezuelan migrants based in Colombia. Finally, changemakers engaged in a policy-making practice to identify implementable pathways forward for policy makers around the world. Through these exercises and discussions in Bogotá, the changemakers identified two categories of key drivers in migration decisions that emerge from interactions between structural pressures, human aspirations, and contextual considerations. The first category of drivers are the patterns that recur across different geographies and time periods (generalizable drivers); and the second category of drivers are the conditions that reflect local institutions, cultural norms, and environmental realities (context-specific drivers). Understanding which drivers fall into each category is essential for designing governance systems that work across borders while remaining adaptable to local contexts.

The different drivers often impact governments and populations differently across regions and time periods, but together they explain the persistence of cross-border movement regardless of short-term policy shifts. By understanding migration drivers this way, policymakers can target resources to the appropriate level of authority, avoid one-size-fits-all approaches, and ensure that both global pressures and local realities get addressed. This pretext also reviews the consequences of migration from the perspective of both origin and destination countries. Migration can relieve demographic pressures, increase economic output, and support development in origin countries through remittances and diaspora investment. However, unmanaged flows or limited access to legal pathways can impose costs in the form of irregular labor markets, social fragmentation, or public service strain. Rather than approaching migration as a crisis, this analysis treats it as a predictable outcome of global interdependence.

Key Drivers of Migration

Generalizable Drivers

Economic opportunity is the most consistent driver of migration across contexts. People and households move in search of higher wages, greater job stability, and better access to education and healthcare. But migration isn't limited to those living in poverty. The perception of falling behind peers can motivate movement just as powerfully as absolute material need. This helps explain why migration often increases during periods of economic growth, as rising aspirations combine with improved ability to finance the move. Evidence indicates that many individuals migrate in response to differences in wages, employment opportunities, and access to services, particularly between lower- and higher-income regions (World Bank 2023). These economic considerations frequently occur at the same time as insecurity and institutional instability. Conflict, persecution, and weak governance increase the likelihood that individuals or households will consider relocation, though not all who face such conditions migrate.

Security and dignity represent another universal driver. Physical threats from conflict, persecution, or widespread violence remain central causes of displacement. But insecurity also takes less visible forms, including economic precarity, exclusion from civic life, and chronic environmental stress. These factors blur the line between voluntary and forced migration, creating pressures that can't be captured by rigid categories.

Demographic shifts add structural dimension to migration pressures. Regions with large youth populations and limited market absorption, such as sub-Saharan Africa, generate significant migration aspirations. At the same time, aging populations in Europe and East Asia create sustained demand for both “skilled” and “unskilled” workers. The resulting interdependence is likely to see migration corridors that will intensify through 2035, reinforcing asymmetric patterns of mobility.

Environmental change increasingly functions as a global driver. Rising temperatures, shifting rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events alter where people can farm and live. These pressures can trigger sudden displacements or accelerate gradual movement from rural to urban areas. The key insight is that climate stress interacts with existing vulnerabilities, magnifying pressures rather than acting in isolation.

Context-Specific Drivers

Governance quality strongly shapes whether and how migration occurs. Corruption, weak rule of law, and absent public services create powerful incentives for people to leave. Conversely, effective governance can reduce migration pressures by expanding opportunity and enhancing security. Yet governance also influences migration pathways directly. Restrictive policies often push movement into irregular dangerous routes (Daniels 2024)., while more inclusive systems create legal routes that reduce risks for migrants and receiving states alike, such as reducing the incentives for smuggling and clandestine movement (Daniels 2024; International Organization for Migration 2016).

Cultural and social norms are especially important in established diaspora as these communities can lower the costs and risks of migration by providing information and support, effectively creating migration corridors that others follow (World Bank 2023). Family expectations and gender norms can also influence who migrates and who stays behind, as well as how migrants integrate into new societies. An example of these norms or expectations can be seen in whether women travel independently, how remittances are distributed, or familial pressures can bind individuals to their communities or compel them to move abroad. These dynamics vary widely, requiring policy frameworks that account for the cultural environment in which migration decisions are made. Even the framing of terminology – for instance, the positive connotations of “expatriate” versus the often-negative stereotypes of “migrant,” reflects and reinforces social attitudes that can affect policy (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2022).

Finally, geography and local environmental conditions such as drought-prone agricultural zones, flood basins, and small island states each face particular vulnerabilities that shape mobility in distinctive ways. Environmental degradation acts as threat multipliers in certain regions, from drought-induced livelihood losses to more frequent disasters, prompting people to move when their homes become uninhabitable. Yet people displaced by climate impacts do not fit neatly into existing legal categories, and current international frameworks offer them little protection (European Parliament 2021). Further complicating this migration type is that the responses that work in one setting may be irrelevant in another, underscoring the need for localized adaptation strategies.

Implications of Migration

Economic Contributions & and Labor Market

Migration can be an economic boon when managed effectively. Migrants fill labor shortages, fuel innovation, and contribute to public finances in destination countries. Although newcomers may require initial integration investments, numerous studies show that over time immigrants tend to contribute more in taxes than they consume in services, resulting in net positive fiscal effects (World Bank, 2023). For example, migrants make up roughly 3.6% of the world’s population but contribute an estimated 9% or more of global GDP, reflecting above-average productivity and labor force participation among many migrant groups (McKinsey Global Institute, 2016). In high-income economies, migrants often gravitate to “3D” jobs, dirty, dangerous, and in-demand, that native workers may be unwilling or unavailable to fill, thereby addressing critical gaps without displacing local labor. They also bring entrepreneurial energy. In the United States and several other countries, immigrants are found to start businesses at higher rates than natives, underpinning innovation and job creation (World Bank, 2023).

Contributions are not only monetary: migrants spur trade and investment linkages with their countries of origin and transfer valuable skills and knowledge across borders. Remittances sent home by migrant workers have become a pillar of development finance: global remittance flows to low- and middle-income countries reached about $656 billion in 2023, exceeding foreign direct investment and aid in many economies (World Bank, 2023). These remittances reduce poverty and promote health and education in origin countries, illustrating how migration can create economic gains on both sides. Crucially, the economic benefits of migration tend to grow over time – second-generation immigrants often achieve higher education and income levels, further boosting the fiscal and productivity gains for host countries (National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, 2017).

Migration can also have distributional effects in host labor markets. In sectors where migrants concentrate, there may be localized wage pressure or job competition for lower-skilled native workers. However, most studies find these effects to be relatively small or temporary, especially when the economy is growing (World Bank 2023). Moreover, when immigrants bring skills that complement the native workforce or fill aging workforce gaps, they can boost productivity and even raise wages for some groups. For instance, migrants often provide essential services in healthcare, agriculture, and technology that keep industries viable and prices lower for consumers. With sound labor-market policies, migration is a net positive for economic growth and can be managed to minimize negative impacts on vulnerable groups (McKinsey Global Institute 2016; World Bank 2023).

Social Impacts

One widely acknowledged challenge is integration. When large migrant populations settle in a community, questions arise around social cohesion, cultural identity, and the extension of rights and services. Best practices suggest that inclusionary policies, such as offering language training, recognizing foreign qualifications, and providing access to health care and education regardless of status – can enhance social cohesion and allow migrants to more fully contribute (United Nations General Assembly 2018). Research also dispels some common public fears: empirical data from multiple countries show no consistent link between immigration and higher crime rates, and in some contexts migrant communities have lower crime rates than native populations (World Bank 2023). The social impact of migration ultimately depends on policy responses: societies that invest in integration and uphold equal protections are better positioned to enjoy the benefits of diversity while maintaining social trust.

Costs of Irregular Migration

A point of unanimous concern was the vulnerability of migrants during transit when migration is poorly managed and available safe pathways are lacking, forcing migrants into irregular channels. The cohort stressed that irregular migration carries steep costs for all involved. Migrants traveling through irregular channels face extreme risks of exploitation, abuse, and even loss of life. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) has documented more than 50,000 migrant deaths on global routes since 2014, a shocking toll of human life lost on dangerous journeys (International Organization for Migration 2022). In transit hubs with poor governance, for example, in parts of Libya or along the Central American corridor, migrants can become stranded in predatory situations, such as detention by militias or coercion by criminal networks. Smuggling and trafficking rings have capitalized on the desperation of people on the move, treating migrants as a lucrative commodity. This black market in migration feeds organized crime: for instance, transnational smuggling operations at key border hotspots generate billions in illicit revenue, as seen with cartel involvement on the U.S.–Mexico border and Mediterranean crossings (World Bank, 2017).

Lacking legal status or protection, migrants in transit may have their documents destroyed by traffickers and accrue heavy debts for passage, leaving them effectively in bondage. The humanitarian and human rights costs of this reality are immense. These challenges underscore that without orderly mechanisms for migration; the process itself can be life-threatening and forcing migration into the shadows not only endangers migrants but also undermines the rule of law, a lose-lose situation for migrants and states alike.

Humanitarian expenditures also spike during chaotic migration events – for example, emergency services and refugee reception in crisis situations can cost several times more than planned resettlement or labor mobility programs would (World Bank 2018). Governments also forego substantial fiscal revenue when migrants work informally in underground economies, not paying taxes into public coffers.

Socially, large unmanaged inflows of people can fuel public anxiety and be seized upon by nativist political movements, leading to greater polarization and difficulty in forging rational policy compromises. Perhaps most strikingly, destination states pour enormous resources into border enforcement and deterrence measures – tens of billions of dollars annually in some cases, yet these investments often yield limited returns when underlying migration drivers remain strong. As one analysis noted, increased border spending has not definitively reduced irregular migration, but it has diverted migrants into more dangerous routes and methods (World Bank 2023).

The cohort’s collectively identified drivers of migration and their implications underscore that expanding regular, orderly migration pathways would be far more beneficial and cost-effective than maintaining the status quo of reactive, enforcement-centric approaches. Ultimately, leading to a more durable and resilient foundation for decision-making on migration policy. This insight informs the forward-looking policy recommendations put forward by the cohort’s working groups in the section that follows.

Policy Recommendations for 2025–2035

Using the identified drivers, and implications, changemakers discussed a comprehensive agenda for migration governance in the next decade. The policy recommendations emphasize anticipation and design over crisis management, aiming to maximize the mutual benefits of migration while safeguarding human rights and national interests.

1. Treat Migration as Structural, Not Episodic

Policymakers should integrate migration into long-term economic and demographic planning, rather than reacting to it as an ad hoc emergency. Yearly national development plans, labor market strategies, and climate adaptation programs should incorporate migration scenarios and needs. For example, workforce and infrastructure planning can account for projected labor mobility, and education systems can prepare citizens for these new and incoming communities. International coordination is crucial here and any plans must emphasize shared responsibility and the principle that well-managed migration can enhance resilience for all.

2. Build Fast, Transparent Legal Pathways

A central recommendation is to expand and improve avenues for legal migration. When safe and legal pathways are available and aligned with real labor market needs, migrants are more likely to use these channels, which reduces irregular flows and the associated humanitarian crises (Daniels 2024). Streamlined visa programs can meet demand on both sides: destination countries fill critical job vacancies, and migrants can migrate without risking exploitation. To achieve this, governments should simplify and digitize immigration processes to shorten wait times and increase transparency. Legal pathways should also be responsive to labor-market design: visa quotas and categories could be informed by labor market assessments and skills shortages (World Bank, 2023). This could involve creating targeted programs for sectors like agriculture, caregiving, or technology where foreign talent is needed. Furthermore, new or flexible visa categories could address contemporary needs, for example, temporary climate adaptation visas or special programs for healthcare workers, ensuring that migration policy is adaptable to changing global conditions. By treating legal migration as an investment in human capital and economic growth (rather than as a threat), governments can multiply positive outcomes.

3. Build Adaptive, Multi-Level Governance

Effective migration management requires coordination across all levels of government: international, national, regional, and local. Governments should establish formal mechanisms for multi-level governance so that policies are coherent and resources are allocated to where needs are greatest (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2022). To avoid a one-size-fits-all approach, governance should be place-sensitive. At the same time, a framework of responsibility-sharing between regions with differing resources can prevent over-concentration and resentment. Data and information systems are key tools in adaptive governance: investing in early-warning systems for migration surges (for instance, monitoring conflict or climate-disaster indicators that predict displacement) can help governments respond proactively before crises escalate. Data systems that are created across governance levels and between country to country could provide key data on demographic skills, labor vacancies, and integration outcomes to guide policy adjustments in real time.

4. Frame Integration as a Two-Way Process

Integration outcomes vary widely by context and policies need to be tailored. Successful integration is a mutual adaptation, it requires adjustments by both migrants and host societies to reduce friction and potential long-term conflict. Policies should facilitate a two-way exchange in which newcomers adapt to core civic norms and receiving communities adapt to embrace new members. Concretely, this involves upholding basic rights and protections for migrants regardless of citizenship status, so that inclusion is possible from day one (United Nations General Assembly 2018). Guaranteeing basic services, legal protections, and fair pathways affirms human dignity and prevents the exclusion of those who contribute to society. Integration works best when newcomers and longtime residents learn from one another through community connections that build trust and shared purpose. To buffer potential resentment from local communities, opportunities offered to migrants should have a comparable opportunity offered to the host community. This could look like incorporating community-wide benefits, such as improvements to local infrastructure, schools, or healthcare facilities. By framing integration as a shared journey of adjustment, respect, and opportunity, societies can minimize friction and unlock the social capital that migrant communities offer.

5. Strengthen Social Cohesion and Change Narratives

Changemakers focused on how governments at all levels could actively foster social cohesion and combat misinformation about migrants. Public education campaigns can highlight immigrants’ economic contributions and counter myths, using rigorous data to replace fear with facts (World Bank 2023). At the same time, changemakers cautioned against any narratives that reduce migrants to solely economic units, and to instead emphasize shared humanity and civic inclusion. Encouraging contact and interaction between immigrants and native-born residents (through community programs, schools, and workplaces) helps break down stereotypes and boost integration. Over the next decade, changing the narrative to one opportunity and shared responsibility is seen as pivotal. Societies that embrace change and uphold equal treatment are more likely to harness the full benefits of migration and experience less social friction (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 2022). Social cohesion and narrative-making around migrants is not just a “moral “imperative but a pragmatic strategy to ensure that migration contributes to social stability and mutual prosperity.

6. Link Migration to Broader Resilience Strategies

Finally, changemakers urged policymakers to consciously connect migration policy with broader resilience and development strategies. Rather than separating migration as a standalone issue, it should be recognized as a lever to address other strategic challenges: aging demographics, climate change adaptation, and sustainable economic development. For example, many countries facing shrinking workforces and pension pressures, and could mitigate these trends by welcoming young workers from abroad, thereby supporting economic dynamism and the tax base (World Bank 2023). Some nations, like New Zealand, already explicitly treat immigration as integral to their economic growth model and population strategy, using managed migration to supply skills and offset citizen emigration, which in turn bolsters long-term resilience (Reid, 2025). Similarly, migration can be part of climate resilience: facilitating regional labor mobility agreements can offer safety valves for populations in climate-vulnerable areas, allowing people to relocate safely and legally rather than as distressed refugees (World Bank 2023). There is growing recognition at the international level that human mobility is an adaptation strategy for climate change; for instance, planned relocation or circular migration schemes could be supported for communities facing sea-level rise. Other strategies could entail providing would-be migrants with information and training before departure so they can maximize skills use abroad and encouraging diaspora bonds or transnational entrepreneurship that benefit both origin and destination.

Understanding migration as an opportunity rather than a crisis can lead to a multitude of benefits, including filling key labor gaps, boosting economic growth, countering illegal human trafficking, improving out-dated and laborious visa processing, and minimizing social upheaval. If migration is accounted for in national to local policy planning, it will enhance the resilience of the systems and societies receiving. By viewing migrants as partners in development, as workers, investors, and bridges between economies and across culture, countries can better mitigate future challenges.Migration, in this view, is not a standalone problem to solve, but one dimension of building resilient, adaptive societies in an interconnected world (United Nations General Assembly, 2018).

Conclusion

Across the varied Changemakers' professional sectors, countries, and perspectives, a clear consensus has emerged that when governed wisely, migration is an investment in shared prosperity and human development. Rather than seeing migration as a zero-sum threat, the policy context and recommendations point to its immense potential to contribute to economic growth, innovation, and cultural vitality if managed through sound policy (McKinsey Global Institute 2016; World Bank 2023). The next decade presents an opportunity to move from reactive, crisis-driven approaches to a proactive migration governance framework that benefits countries of origin, transit, and destination, as well as migrants themselves. This transition will require courage and leadership to implement.

It also demands a continued commitment to objectivity and understanding in public discourse, grounding policies in facts and humanitarian principles rather than fear. It will require challenging, sometimes even uncomfortable, dialogue to identify and implement these mutually reinforcing and beneficial policies. Leaders will need to remain resilient, strategic, and nimble to improve migration governance at this and the next decade. Effective leadership requires an openness to policy experimentation and innovation, coupled with an acceptance of inherent risks. Such initiatives may fail, but when successful, they can fundamentally reform failing systems and help mitigate existing social strain.

International agreements exist to provide a blueprint for cooperation, emphasizing that safe, orderly, and regular migration is in the collective interest (United Nations General Assembly, 2018). By following through on these commitments, treating migrants as people with rights and potential, and migration as a longstanding and inherent part of society, governments can harness migration as a force for resilience and prosperity. This means integrating migration into long-term economic, infrastructural, demographic planning; improving avenues for legal migration; improving collaboration across all levels of government to improve resource allocation and reduce strain; consider integration as key to social cohesion by respecting civic norms of migrants and providing mutually beneficial opportunities for migrants and receiving communities alike; and finally, combatting misinformation and encouraging social interactions to build trust between communities.

Governments and leaders should invest in the infrastructure to process migrants efficiently and lawfully, ensuring that integration systems keep pace with inflows, and continually adapting policies based on evidence of what works. If approached in this spirit, migration in the 2025–2035 period can be transformed from a divisive challenge into a mutually beneficial process. The way we choose to govern human mobility is a reflection of the kind of societies we aspire to build. By shifting towards strategies of partnership and legal order, we will see migration deliver on its promise as a driver of development and a cornerstone of our shared future (Daniels, 2024; World Bank, 2023).

From the Cohort

Building on the policy recommendations and thematic findings outlined in this report, five changemakers from the 2025 cohort: Iulian Coman from Romania, James Eggers from the United States, Giulia Iacovelli from Italy, Anna Makernko from the Czech Republic, and Miriam Wanjiru from Kenya offer their perspectives that expand upon this analysis and situate it within their local contexts.